Market Outlook


The Russian equity market outperformed its peers last week thanks to the oil price recovery. Global markets had their poorest performance in nearly three months. This was mostly due to the lack of a resolution of the US-China trade dispute and the ECB’s downgrade of its economic growth forecast for the eurozone to 1.1%.


The Russian equity market declined slightly last week in line with the overall EM market. The MSCI EM index fell 0.7% over the week. There was no additional pressure on Russia from oil price decline or from publication of the suggested law amendments regarding sanctions on Russia from the US. MSCI World rose by 0.5% thanks to positive speculation around US-China trade talks and the expectation that the trade deal is near.


The Russian equity market edged into the black last week, mainly thanks to oil prices rising and positive sentiment around the US-China trade talks. Oil prices continued to be supported by the OPEC+ supply cuts agreement and the US sanctions on Venezuelan exports. Expectations of positive results from the US-China talks supported global markets overall: the MSCI EM index gained 2.8% and the MSCI World rose by 1% in US dollar terms.


Talk of fresh sanctions triggered profit-taking in Russian equities, ending a five-week run of outperformance against emerging market peers.


After five consecutive weeks of growth, the Russian equity market has somewhat corrected. Globally, investors were most likely fixing their profits after a healthy year-to-date performance.


The Russian equity market edged into the black last week. Global markets rose as well: the MSCI EM index gained 1.7% and the MSCI World rose by 1.4% in US dollar terms. The partial recovery in crude oil prices and the official lifting of US sanctions on Russian public companies supported investor sentiment.


The Russian equity market continued to rise, along with other emerging markets: the MSCI EM index also gained 1.4% in US dollar terms over the week. In contrast, MSCI World rose only marginally by 0.1%. Overall, as of 23 January, emerging markets equities saw an inflow of USD 3.1 bln, which was a second consecutive week of inflows above USD 3bln. Among that, net inflow into the Russian market over the most recent week was USD 135 mln, mainly through the GEM-funds.


The Russian equity market remained in the black for third week in a row as global markets continued to recover: the MSCI EM and MSCI World indices rose by 1.7% and 2.3%, respectively, in US dollar terms. The Russian equity market continued to outperform other emerging markets thanks to rising oil prices and optimism over a possible easing of sanctions.